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Now, even tho the earth has been undergoing drastic climate changes during the 4.5billion years or so of its existence.... As soon as the modern homo sapiens appeared around about 120,000years ago... the speed at which these climatic changes have occurred is absolutely shocking~~
Ever since the industrial revolution in the mid-1700s, the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have dramatically increased. C02 went up by about 30% and methane went up by approx. 150% (tho CO2 has the most severe effects of the two).
Some anthropologists theorize that past ice ages are actually the reason modern man kind evolved. Ever sense homoerectus (the first human species to leave africa that we know of) people have been forced to leave their habitates because of climate change. And actually 120,000 year ago does coincide quite nicely to the last major ice age. One thing you need to remember at the emitions of CO2 is that at any moment a volcano can errupt and emit far more gasses than we have in our entire existance. A super volcano could actually mean the end of most life on this planet.
In one sense you're right though. Those gasses have gone up considerably. But most those gasses are absorbed by the vegitation on the planet. And most of those gasses don't reach the upper atmosphere. That is where the Ozone layer is and beleive it or not Ozone is a green house gas. In fact if there were no green house gasses Earth would be a snow ball with no liquid surface water.
The main problems gasses like CO2 cause - that we are sure of - is acid rain. For example consider Germany. Germany is something like the 3rd or 4th most powerful industrial nation in the world. Yet the country is about the size of New York, New Jersey and Delaware combined. The out put of gasses has mixedf with water vapor, water vapor rises in the atmosphere until it condences into a liquid, but having mixed with the toxic gasses, instead of raining down as harmless water, we have acid rain.
Other problems are lung cancer and breathing problems. My local news channel did a story on some study done that claimed people who spent more than hour a day on the free way were at a higher risk of lung problems in their life. The cause is because they inhale more CO2 from the exhaust of cars. I know other claims say that people who live in cities vs. rural communities are also at a higher risk too.
One thing I am not saying is that CO2 emissions are not a problem - they are and we need to deal with them. What I am saying is even if CO2 emitions have contributed to global warming (which I do contend that they have not caused global warming) the real problem is issues like waste management, consumption of fresh water, killing off plants and animals necessary to keep respective ecosystems stable, deforrestation, strip mining and so many other concerns are far more pressing matters than global warming. Sure that is also on the list, but I think it needs to take a back seat for the time being.
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You're saying that most of the increased CO2 is being reabsorbed back to the earth, so how come the global temperature is still rising overall?
The sun is warming us up. The earths albedo is decreasing (see my earlier post on that) but what that means is the earth is absorbing more heat from the sun because the surface contains more and more things that absorb heat. Those deep blue oceans actually absorb a considerable amount of heat. So do the rain forests. But albedo is basically an astronomical term used to describe a planet's reflectivity - how much of the sun's heat is reflected or absorbed. The more darker surfaces you have on a planet the warmer it is. A lighter surface means more heat is reflected back into space. As we see a gradual decrease in the size of our ice caps (ice reflects heat) you'd naturally assume the planet is warming up. But can we say that human activities are the cause of this? Well we cannot say humanity prevented it, that is for sure. And we also know the Earth does go through climate changes, sometimes more rapidly than others.
Even if you take away all the forests in the world its still going to take a long long time to really alter the earth's atmosphere. The real thing that absorbs CO2 is the ocean - rather the algea in the ocean. Warmer oceans mean more algae. More algae means less CO2. The problem there is other pollutants are killing of the algae. Less algae, more CO2.
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Also, there is a chain reaction with global warming. As the temperature rises and more freshwater is being dumped into the North Atlantic Ocean via the melting of the ice-bergs, the currents of this ocean is altered and its effects could be disastrous.
from a National Geographic report(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/06/0627_050627_oceancurrent.html) we know that the North Atlantic Ocean acts like a conveyor belt to move the warm surface waters to the Arctic, release the heat into atmosphere and make those waters denser. It also moves this denser water southwards and into the deep ocean nearer the equator.
I saw a similar national geographic program that claimed that same conveyor belt is the reason ice ages happen. As it stops flowing during temperate, or warm periods, less warm water reaches the poles. This causes a gradual reduction in temperature that eventually lead to another ice age. Naturally these climate cycles last between 120,000 and 100,000 years. Which if that is correct we're actually entering a temperate period now.
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Even though the effects of Global Warming may seem insignificant now.... as the "imbalance" becomes greater and greater... eventually a chain effect/reaction will take place, the "system" of the earth will malfunction and eventually....it will bring about a major global disaster.
I think pointing to global warming as the cause for this global "malfunction" is reallhy scape goating the real problem - people in general. I certainly agree with the chain reaction idea. Weather or not we're putting lots of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is of no consequence in comparission to the fact that since modern man has existed - about 50,000 years - nearly 30% of all animal life has become extinct. Many agree that Earth is currently in a period of mass extinction. Only this time the cause is not natural phenomenon (well in one sense it is, since we are a natural product of the earth) but rather the cause is humanity.
And mass extinction is only part of the problem. Humans are growing at an alarmingly fast rate, we believe the human population will double ever 39 years. If the population was officially 6 billion in 1999, then that means in 2038 (there about) there will be roughly 12 billion people. Who's going to feed them? Where are they going to get heat or shelter or clean water or medical supplies? People consume reasources and part of the reason this mass extinction of other animals is happening is because we consume more from the Earth than we put back. As we continue to grow in populations the rate of consumption will only increase.
According to the math I did,10,000 years to fill the atmosphere with CO2 was based on the fact that most of it gets reabsorbed by plant life and water vapor - mainly the oceans and forests. Take those way and it only takes about 1000 years to fill the atmosphere with CO2 and even a much less amount of time to alter it significantly - only ten years for one percent change.
What this demonstrates is that the problem right now in our time is not CO2 emissions themselves, but the reasons CO2 is being emitted in the first place and the fact that people are causing global devistation. CO2 emissions is just part of the greater issue, but not proof that people caused global warming.
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I know that this will probably not happen any time soon... but for those that give a damn about our future generations.... then do your part to drive less, save energy, protect the organisms and plants........ OR........ never get pregnant again~~ *cough* lol
Thats what I'm saying. Stop dropping bombs and start dropping boxes of condoms. Start teaching third world doctors to give visectomies. Maybe in a macabre sense a global plague is what the planet needs. Maybe a global plague is actually the Earth's defense mechanism to us? Who knows. All I'm saying is people shouldn't fall for the hype about CO2 missions causing global warming. We should be more concerned and environmentally aware though and we should be far more worried about the future. We seriously need to be worrying about using fossil fuels and aiding developing countires. Those two issues are key factors in the future of our species. If we do nothing let it be business as usual, we're going to use up all our reasources and by then it will be too late to do anything about it.
Despite the bleak under tones I do think that unless the sun just gets mad at Earth and dicides to bitch slap it with a giant fire ball, humans, will survive for a very long time in some form.